I ran into a difficult hand situation which I would appreciate input on. On 5th st I have a 4 flush (2 flush showing), a player showing A, 7, 7 checks, 3 players fold, a player showing 5, Q, 5 bets. I call and the probable A’s up calls. Game continues with 5?s betting and the 2 pair and I calling all the way up the river. I make the flush but both the A’s up and I loose to the 5?s full. I question what the best play would have been in this situation. There are several ways to loose but only one way to win. Either the A,7,7 or the 5?s could have already had a FH and I’m drawing dead. If either player improves, I loose. The only way to win from 5th st is for me to improve while neither other player does. However, on 6th st the 5?s only has one hidden card to pair and make FH since he has 5, “?” in the hole, otherwise he must pair his board to make FH. Likewise, the A,7,7 can not make FH on 6th without me knowing. I didn’t make the flush till 7th st. After thinking about this hand I also question how it should be played if I were to have made the flush on 5th or 6th st. The 2 pair would probably fold but not the trips. Although I would have the best hand at the moment, if the trips improve, I loose. How should this be played? Are these just a couple of those close hands where betting and calling are the better play?
Here’s some of the relevant math… Let’s say that your hand was [Ks-10s]-8h-4s-2s, and the opposing hands were [As-x]-Ah-7d-7c and [5s-x]-5h-Qd-5c, and all other cards random… First of all, you can make your flush only less than 1/3rd of the time, and even when you DO make you flush, most of those flushes will LOSE. Overall, the odds are worse than 6-to-1 against…OK?!
When the fives paired his door card I’m gone with only a flush draw. If I had a reason to get tricky and present a very aggressive image, or if the guy with the pair of 5s showing is a very weak player I might raise with my flush draw. But against regular solid players or unknown players I’m gone. I might be in third place. I’ll save my chips for another hand.
I would have folded when I saw the five pair his door card. I would have definitely folded on sixth since you did not make your
flush. With two people in, you probably are not getting better pot odds than 6 to 1, as barbara puts it. If we were to assume that the A77 had spit aces, he screwed up by not raising early and forcing out the pair of fives. Some questions… how many of your suit was out?? How many queens were dead? This may change the calculation, but not much.